Who is confident about the future?

Clearly the answer is Tesco and Sainsbury, who are leading a big increase in investment in new stores and extensions to existing stores, according to building industry analyst Glenigan.

It has tracked £350 million of investment in 60 projects by major supermarket groups in the first quarter, more than double the £150m of contracts awarded in the same quarter in 2009.

Almost all of these projects will come into the market over the next 18 months - suggesting the supermarkets are banking on a recovery in shopper sentiment in 2011, suggests Allan Wilen, economic director of Glenigan.

What is clear is that they are backing themselves to be successful. The really interesting question is whether they are going to be slugging for share against each other as Nielsen data for 2009 and the first quarter of 2010 shows that convenience stores are out-growing the supermarkets.

A good time for optimists armed with a good business strategy.

Comments

Three secrets of great merchandising

Look at the ceiling and top wall of this McDonalds restaurant. There is a picture of two good looking healthy people having fun and some bright primary colours. Ask yourself what is the purpose of this picture? In the latest issue of Retail Newsagent in a feature on merchandising, Andrew Knight of RI tells its independent readers that they need to think about using sharp pictures of non-packaged products linked to people consuming goods. Perhaps this has been taken to the next level by the fast food chain - that is selling the feeling of being happy and healthy rather than the products. A second, related tip from the same feature is made by most contributors - it is vital to keep windows clean and clear of clutter. "I believe that less is more," says Roli Ranger, a retailer from Ascot, Berkshire. He has posters for promotions in between the windows that are regularly updated and discreet signs in the windows. Third, a highly visible well-stocked promotion at the entranc...

Busy street, empty shop, missed profits

True in part to my New Year resolution, I held a business meeting in an independent coffee shop today just next door to a Starbucks. The cafe was presented well and four staff were busy preparing for the lunchtime rush, at 11am. As my guests were late, I had a half hour overview of footfall on the street outside and in the restaurant. Six customers. Barely enough to form the queue in Starbucks or Pret-a-Manger just down the road. Plus one Italian girl who dropped off her CV. Some people stopped to look at the posters in the window and moved on. The owners seemed quite happy. When I left just after 1215, they were doing brisk trade. However, I have the impression that the business is not working hard enough. It could easily have managed 120 customers between 11 and 12, instead of 12. This is lost profit as the fixed overheads and staff costs are already in place. The owners are clearly busy - perhaps too busy to take time to look at the potential that their cafe has. What shou...

Sticks and stones do hurt

My 17 year-old son returned from a rock festival this week wearing a wristband proudly declaring him 0ver 18. He explained how easy it had been to use someone else's ID to get the identification and said it was ironic that he had not needed to show the over 18 band when buying alcohol. Today, Scottish retailer Abdul Qadar is complaining that public authorities are asking people to lie about their age when making test purchases. What trading standards officers may be forgetting is that the fact that retailers invest in a business premises and trade consistently from it make their job much, much easier. The alternative, a world of markets and itinerant traders, will be far harder to police. Mr Qadar's sense of injustice is fair. Those retailers, like Mr Qadar, who value their investment will seek to trade legally and will not sell alcohol to people under the age of 18. Asking children to lie about their age to local traders is a slander on all retailers.

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