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Who is confident about the future?

Clearly the answer is Tesco and Sainsbury, who are leading a big increase in investment in new stores and extensions to existing stores, according to building industry analyst Glenigan.

It has tracked £350 million of investment in 60 projects by major supermarket groups in the first quarter, more than double the £150m of contracts awarded in the same quarter in 2009.

Almost all of these projects will come into the market over the next 18 months - suggesting the supermarkets are banking on a recovery in shopper sentiment in 2011, suggests Allan Wilen, economic director of Glenigan.

What is clear is that they are backing themselves to be successful. The really interesting question is whether they are going to be slugging for share against each other as Nielsen data for 2009 and the first quarter of 2010 shows that convenience stores are out-growing the supermarkets.

A good time for optimists armed with a good business strategy.
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