Skip to main content

Lex pinpoints risks for UK c-stores

In the wake of Morrison's results announcement last week, The Lex column in the Financial Times provided a brief and pithy piece of analysis that is food for thought for businesspeople investing in local shops.

Lex says there are two reasons for Morrisons to be wary.

First, local shops mainly sell food and this means the margin mix is not as attractive as in a supermarket where you can sell more high margin goods. The Co-op, which I think is a good benchmark for independent retailers to compare themselves to, makes a 3 per cent operating margin in food. Lex contrasts this with Tesco's 5 per cent margin.

Second, enthusiasm for the sector could be overdone. While the IGD predicts the local shop sector will grow by 5 per cent a year to 2017, Lex says consumers' love of the high street could be an "austerity-driven blip rather than a long-term trend". Indeed.

However, the trend started before austerity and is based on the size of households and the age of the population, with smaller households and older people needing fewer trips to the superstore. And the cost of petrol...

Lex says there is one reason for Morrisons to be bullish.

That is because the supermarkets only have 17 per cent of the convenience store market, which, in Lex's words, means "there is plenty of market share to take". Morrisons, it says, should "settle in and enjoy the party".

Sainsbury says that c-stores offer a 20 per cent return on capital against 15 per cent for bigger shops and they reach maturity in six months, compared to three years. Some useful benchmark figures, again.

At the end of the page, it is the same story. If you do your homework and find the correct wholesale supplier, you have a great chance of competing with the multiples in the local sector. But don't expect it to be easy.


Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Digital disruption in the UK wholesale space

“Twenty years ago I was driving boxes to the post office in my Chevy Blazer and dreaming of a forklift,” says Jeff Bezos in his most recent letter to shareholders. A blink later and he points out that the company has grown from 30,000 employees in 2010 to 230,000 now. But his ambition is the same. “We want to be a large company that’s also an invention machine. We want to combine the extraordinary customer-serving capabilities that are enabled by size with the speed of movement, nimbleness and risk-acceptance mentality that is normally associated with entrepreneurial start-ups.” Amazon is great at disruption because of its customers focus and the fact that the internet means it needs none (or very few) people between its warehouses and the shopper. The threat of Prime, its membership service, is the biggest challenge facing the UK retail market and the wholesale market by extension. It is both a direct threat and an indirect threat in that is inspiring countless numbers of othe...
Post a Comment
Read more

Traffic lights: a fuss about nothing

I am sure that FT columnist Michael Skapinker has written about traffic lights food labelling before and his latest article is provocatively called: The food companies that make people fat. He criticises Coca-Cola and Unilever for sticking with guideline daily amounts (GDAs) when traffic lights work much better. Former Walmart Europe public affairs head Bernard Hughes wrote in to support Skapinker. He said: "There isn't ever a perfect information system flowing with beautiful logic. But traffic lights give powerful direction to the busy consumer." But in this age of smart phones surely this debate over the labelling on the packaging is easily overcome. The government can simply issue an app that when held over a bar code provides shoppers with a traffic light system. The supermarkets could do this on their websites. Surely the whole point about the future is that the internet and limitless data storage means that the shopper is being empowered with the informatio...
Post a Comment
Read more

Tough times need tough benchmarks

Underneath the hype, the Christmas announcements by the major grocers demonstrate tough trading conditions, with Tesco saying that like-for-like sales in the UK were up by just 0.6 per cent. The analysts will be having this in negative territory in no time. The impact of Tesco's investment in new space is a 3.6 per cent increase in sales yet the Kantar Worldpanel figures show its market share remains unchanged at 30.5 per cent. The two sets of figures are not strictly aligned but local retailers can see the picture. Across at Sainsbury, which is doing well, the Kantar Worldpanel figures show it adding 0.3 per cent of market share to 16.6 per cent, just behind Asda on 16.8 per cent (which lost a 10th of a basis point). Sainsbury reported like-for-like sales growth of 3.6 per cent but City analysts cut this down to almost zero after stripping out new space, VAT and food price inflation. The Tesco press release highlighted "Steady UK Performance" and Sainsbury trumpete...
2 comments
Read more